The 2010 Integrated Resource Plan envisages building 9,600 MWe of new nuclear power capacity by building between six and eight new nuclear reactors by 2030, which would cost about R1 trillion. Five countries, South Korea, France, Russia, US, and China have bid to supply the reactors. As of 2015, Russia's Rosatom and Chinese companies are the front runners to supply new nuclear plants due to their commitments to finance the builds. In 2008 Max Lee, CEO of Eskom, announced Eskom plans to build 20 GW of nuclear power by 2025, the first station of which could be completed by 2017. However, the investment decision to go ahead with this was not made. Until 2010, South Africa had an expansion policy based upon the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor but government financing was withdrawn because of missed deadlines and lack of customers. Several groups, including Earthlife Africa and Koeberg Alert, had opposed these plans. In 2016, an updated draft IRP was published which set a much lower and slower nuclear target, due to lower demand projections and increased capital cost. This updated IRP envisaged that the first new nuclear power plant would only need to be online by 2041. Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson said that nuclear is non-negotiable for SA because the country lacks adequate water to support coal-fired power generation. However, some energy experts believe that South Africa does not need the extra energy that a new nuclear power plant would generate but can and should make use of on renewables such as solar and wind, of which South Africa is well positioned to take advantage. In January 2018 Eskom's acting Chief Financial Officer stated that the company cannot afford a new build, following a 34% drop in interim profits due to declining sales and increasing financing costs. The government stated it will proceed with the plan but more slowly. The draft 2018 IRP does not call for new nuclear power, partly due to declining electricity demand, forecast 30% lower than in the previous IRP. The agreed 2019 IRP plans a 20 year life-extension for Koeberg to 2044, and a delayed nuclear new build programme due to the "marginal cost of generation, in comparison to other options" with a scenario that may build new capacity after 2030. Small modular reactors may become an attractive option, dependent on earlier demonstration elsewhere in the world.
Criticism
There has been much concern about the cost of the endeavour, as well as the possibility for corruption, due to the lack of transparency in the procurement processes and the disregard of civic society. President Jacob Zuma nevertheless pushed ahead with plans to secure nuclear power.
Legality
Following the Public Protector's "State of Capture" report, which implicated him and Jacob Zuma in the peddling of state patronage, Brian Molefe resigned from his position as executive chief of Eskom on 1 January 2017. However, analysts noted that corruption at Eskom was deep-rooted and that Molefe's resignation would not resolve the nuclear question. In April, 2017, Eskom requested that the Treasury department waive procurement regulations for the new nuclear plants, claiming that Eskom "had done a lot of the work prior" and that these efforts were adequate. The Democratic Alliance objected on the grounds that this would embark the state on its "single biggest public procurement without fully assessing associated risks and consequences for SA’s economy". On 26 April 2017, following a legal application by Earthlife Africa and the Southern African Faith Communities Environment Institute, the Western Cape High Court declared that the South African government's new nuclear procurement processes had been unlawful because they had not followed due processes. The court noted that the National Energy Regulator, Parliament, and the Energy Minister must all be involved in the process. All of the subsequent existing contracts with Russia, the US, and South Korea were therefore found to be void.
Costs
The R1 trillion cost of the new nuclear project has played a part in ratings downgrades by international credit ratings agencies. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, who opposed new nuclear installations on the grounds of its steep cost, was replaced by Malusi Gigaba in March, 2017. Gigaba is responsible for filling the vacancy of chief procurement officer at Treasury, which would make decisions about procurement processes regarding the new nuclear project.
