Government budget balance
A government budget is a financial statement presenting the government's proposed revenues and spending for a financial year. The government budget balance, also alternatively referred to as general government balance, public budget balance, or public fiscal balance, is the overall difference between government revenues and spending. A positive balance is called a government budget surplus, and a negative balance is a government budget deficit. A budget is prepared for each level of government and takes into account public social security obligations.
The government budget balance can be broken down into the primary balance and interest payments on accumulated government debt; the two together give the budget balance. Furthermore, the budget balance can be broken down into the structural balance and the cyclical component: the structural budget balance attempts to adjust for the impact of cyclical changes in real GDP, in order to indicate the longer-run budgetary situation.
The government budget surplus or deficit is a flow variable, since it is an amount per unit of time. Thus it is distinct from government debt, which is a stock variable since it is measured at a specific point in time. The cumulative flow of deficits equals the stock of debt.
Sectoral balances
The government fiscal balance is one of three major sectoral balances in the national economy, the others being the foreign sector and the private sector. The sum of the surpluses or deficits across these three sectors must be zero by definition. For example, if there is a foreign financial surplus because capital is imported to fund the trade deficit, and there is also a private sector financial surplus due to household saving exceeding business investment, then by definition, there must exist a government budget deficit so all three net to zero. The government sector includes federal, state and local governments. For example, the U.S. government budget deficit in 2011 was approximately 10% GDP, offsetting a capital surplus of 4% GDP and a private sector surplus of 6% GDP.Financial journalist Martin Wolf argued that sudden shifts in the private sector from deficit to surplus forced the government balance into deficit, and cited as example the U.S.: "The financial balance of the private sector shifted towards surplus by the almost unbelievable cumulative total of 11.2 per cent of gross domestic product between the third quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2009, which was when the financial deficit of US government reached its peak...No fiscal policy changes explain the collapse into massive fiscal deficit between 2007 and 2009, because there was none of any importance. The collapse is explained by the massive shift of the private sector from financial deficit into surplus or, in other words, from boom to bust."
Economist Paul Krugman explained in December 2011 the causes of the sizable shift from private deficit to surplus: "This huge move into surplus reflects the end of the housing bubble, a sharp rise in household saving, and a slump in business investment due to lack of customers."
The sectoral balances derive from the sectoral analysis framework for macroeconomic analysis of national economies developed by British economist Wynne Godley.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a country during one year. GDP measures flows rather than stocks. GDP can be expressed equivalently in terms of production or the types of newly produced goods purchased, as per the National Accounting relationship between aggregate spending and income:
where Y is GDP, C is consumption spending, I is private investment spending, G is government spending on goods and services, X is exports and M is imports.
Another perspective on the national income accounting is to note that households can allocate total income to the following uses:
where S is total saving and T is total taxation net of transfer payments.
Combining the two perspectives gives
Hence
This implies the accounting identity for the three sectoral balances – private domestic, government budget and external:
The sectoral balances equation says that total private saving minus private investment has to equal the public deficit plus net exports minus imports ), where net exports is the net spending of non-residents on this country's production. Thus total private saving equals private investment plus the public deficit plus net exports.
In macroeconomics, the Modern Money Theory describes any transactions between the government sector and the non-government sector as a vertical transaction. The government sector includes the treasury and the central bank, whereas the non-government sector includes private individuals and firms and the external sector – that is, foreign buyers and sellers.
In any given time period, the government's budget can be either in deficit or in surplus. A deficit occurs when the government spends more than it taxes; and a surplus occurs when a government taxes more than it spends. Sectoral balances analysis shows that as a matter of accounting, government budget deficits add net financial assets to the private sector. This is because a budget deficit means that a government has deposited, over the course of some time range, more money and bonds into private holdings than it has removed in taxes. A budget surplus means the opposite: in total, the government has removed more money and bonds from private holdings via taxes than it has put back in via spending.
Therefore, budget deficits, by definition, are equivalent to adding net financial assets to the private sector, whereas budget surpluses remove financial assets from the private sector.
This is represented by the identity:
where NX is net exports. This implies that private net saving is only possible if the government runs budget deficits; alternately, the private sector is forced to dissave when the government runs a budget surplus.
According to the sectoral balances framework, budget surpluses offset net saving; in a time of high effective demand, this may lead to a private sector reliance on credit to finance consumption patterns. Hence, continual budget deficits are necessary for a growing economy that wants to avoid deflation. Therefore, budget surpluses are required only when the economy has excessive aggregate demand, and is in danger of inflation. If the government issues its own currency, MMT tells us that the level of taxation relative to government spending is in reality a policy tool that regulates inflation and unemployment, and not a means of funding the government's activities per se.
Primary balance
"Primary balance" is defined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as government net borrowing or net lending, excluding interest payments on consolidated government liabilities.Primary deficit, total deficit, and debt
The meaning of "deficit" differs from that of "debt", which is an accumulation of yearly deficits. Deficits occur when a government's expenditures exceed the revenue that it levies. The deficit can be measured with or without including the interest payments on the debt as expenditures.The primary deficit is defined as the difference between current government spending on goods and services and total current revenue from all types of taxes net of transfer payments. The total deficit is the primary deficit plus interest payments on the debt.
Therefore, if refers to an arbitrary year, is government spending and is tax revenue for the respective year, then
If is last year's debt, and is the interest rate attached to the debt, then the total deficit for year t is
where the first term on the right side is interest payments on the outstanding debt.
Finally, this year's debt can be calculated from last year's debt and this year's total deficit, using the government budget constraint:
That is, the debt after this year's government operations equals what it was a year earlier plus this year's total deficit, because the current deficit has to be financed by borrowing via the issuance of new bonds.
Economic trends can influence the growth or shrinkage of fiscal deficits in several ways. Increased levels of economic activity generally lead to higher tax revenues, while government expenditures often increase during economic downturns because of higher outlays for social insurance programs such as unemployment benefits. Changes in tax rates, tax enforcement policies, levels of social benefits, and other government policy decisions can also have major effects on public debt. For some countries, such as Norway, Russia, and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, oil and gas receipts play a major role in public finances.
Inflation reduces the real value of accumulated debt. If investors anticipate future inflation, however, they will demand higher interest rates on government debt, making public borrowing more expensive.
Structural deficits, cyclical deficits, and the fiscal gap
A government deficit can be thought of as consisting of two elements, structural and cyclical. At the lowest point in the business cycle, there is a high level of unemployment. This means that tax revenues are low and expenditure high. Conversely, at the peak of the cycle, unemployment is low, increasing tax revenue and decreasing social security spending. The additional borrowing required at the low point of the cycle is the cyclical deficit. By definition, the cyclical deficit will be entirely repaid by a cyclical surplus at the peak of the cycle.The structural deficit is the deficit that remains across the business cycle, because the general level of government spending exceeds prevailing tax levels. The observed total budget deficit is equal to the sum of the structural deficit with the cyclical deficit or surplus.
Some economists have criticized the distinction between cyclical and structural deficits, contending that the business cycle is too difficult to measure to make cyclical analysis worthwhile.
The fiscal gap, a measure proposed by economists Alan Auerbach and Laurence Kotlikoff, measures the difference between government spending and revenues over the very long term, typically as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The fiscal gap can be interpreted as the percentage increase in revenues or reduction of expenditures necessary to balance spending and revenues in the long run. For example, a fiscal gap of 5% could be eliminated by an immediate and permanent 5% increase in taxes or cut in spending or some combination of both.
It includes not only the structural deficit at a given point in time, but also the difference between promised future government commitments, such as health and retirement spending, and planned future tax revenues. Since the elderly population is growing much faster than the young population in many developed countries, many economists argue that these countries have important fiscal gaps, beyond what can be seen from their deficits alone.
National government budgets
Data are for 2010:| Nation | GDP | Revenue | Expenditure | Budget Balance | Expenditure/GDP | Balance/Revenue | Balance/GDP |
| US | 14,526 | 2,162 | 3,456 | -1,293 | 23.8% | 14.88% | -8.9% |
| US | 14,526 | 900 | 850 | +32 | 7.6% | +5.6% | +0.4% |
| Japan | 4,600 | 1,400 | 1,748 | +195 | 38.0% | -24.9% | +3.6% |
| Germany | 2,700 | 1,200 | 1,300 | +199 | 48.2% | -8.3% | +6.1% |
| United Kingdom | 2,100 | 835 | 897 | -75 | 42.7% | -7.4% | -3.3% |
| France | 2,000 | 1,005 | 1,080 | -44 | 54.0% | -7.5% | -1.7% |
| Italy | 1,600 | 768 | 820 | -72 | 51.3% | -6.8% | -3.5% |
| China | 1,600 | 318 | 349 | -31 | 21.8% | -9.7% | +5.1% |
| Spain | 1,000 | 384 | 386 | -64 | 38.6% | -0.5% | -4.6% |
| Canada | 900 | 150 | 144 | -49 | 16.0% | +4.0% | -3.1% |
| South Korea | 600 | 150 | 155 | +29 | 25.8% | -3.3% | +2.9% |
Early deficits
Before the invention of bonds, the deficit could only be financed with loans from private investors or other countries. A prominent example of this was the Rothschild dynasty in the late 18th and 19th century, though there were many earlier examples.These loans became popular when private financiers had amassed enough capital to provide them, and when governments were no longer able to simply print money, with consequent inflation, to finance their spending.
Large long-term loans are risky for the lender, and therefore commanded high interest rates. To reduce their borrowing costs, governments began to issue bonds that were payable to the bearer so that the lenders could sell on some or all of the debt to someone else. This innovation reduced the risk for the lenders, and so the government could offer a lower interest rate. Examples of bearer bonds are British Consols and American Treasury bill bonds.
Deficit spending
According to most economists, during recessions, the government can stimulate the economy by intentionally running a deficit.As Professor William Vickrey, awarded with the 1996 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences put it :
Ricardian equivalence
The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis, named after the English political economist and Member of Parliament David Ricardo, states that because households anticipate that current public deficit will be paid through future taxes, those households will accumulate savings now to offset those future taxes. If households acted in this way, a government would not be able to use tax cuts to stimulate the economy. The Ricardian equivalence result requires several assumptions. These include households acting as if they were infinite-lived dynasties as well as assumptions of no uncertainty and no liquidity constraints.Also, for Ricardian equivalence to apply, the deficit spending would have to be permanent. In contrast, a one-time stimulus through deficit spending would suggest a lesser tax burden annually than the one-time deficit expenditure. Thus temporary deficit spending is still expansionary. Empirical evidence on Ricardian equivalence effects has been mixed.
Crowding-out hypothesis
The crowding-out hypothesis is the conjecture that when a government experiences a deficit, the choice to borrow to offset that deficit draws on the pool of resources available for investment, and private investment gets crowded out. This crowding-out effect is induced by changes in the interest rate. When the government wishes to borrow, its demand for credit increases and the interest rate, or price of credit, increases. This increase in the interest rate makes private investment more expensive as well and less of it is used.Potential policy solutions for unintended deficits
Increase taxes or reduce government spending
If a reduction in a structural deficit is desired, either revenue must increase, spending must decrease, or both. Taxes may be increased for everyone/every entity across the board or lawmakers may decide to assign that tax burden to specific groups of people Lawmakers may also decide to cut government spending.Like with taxes, they could decide to cut the budgets of every government agency/entity by the same percentage or they may decide to give a greater budget cut to specific agencies. Many, if not all, of these decisions made by lawmakers are based on political ideology, popularity with their electorate, or popularity with their donors.
Changes in tax code
Similar to increasing taxes, changes can be made to the tax code that increases tax revenue. Closing tax loopholes and allowing fewer deductions are different from the act of increasing taxes but essentially have the same effect.Reduce debt service liability
Every year, the government must pay debt service payments on their overall public debt. These payments include principal and interest payments. Occasionally, the government has the opportunity to refinance some of their public debt to afford them lower debt service payments. Doing this would allow the government to cut expenditures without cutting government spending.A balanced budget is a practice that sees a government enforcing that payments, procurement of resources will only be done inline with realised revenues, such that a flat or a zero balance is maintained. Surplus purchases are funded through increases in tax.