2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election


The 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. The Democratic nominee, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent Matt Bevin by just over 5,000 votes, or 0.37%, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Kentucky since 1899. Bevin conceded on November 14, after a recanvass took place that day that did not change the vote count. Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%, much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election. The result was a major swing from 2016, when Donald Trump won the state by 30 points and Republicans gained a supermajority in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly.

Background

Major-party primary elections occurred on May 21, 2019. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Bevin was renominated by the Republican Party, and Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic nomination.
Bevin announced on January 25, 2019, that he would run for a second term, choosing State Senator Ralph Alvarado as his running mate over incumbent Lieutenant Governor Jenean Hampton. No Republican governor of Kentucky has ever been elected to more than one term, even after the state's constitutional prohibition of governors serving consecutive terms was repealed in 1992. The only Republican before Bevin to run for reelection, Ernie Fletcher, was defeated by Democrat Steve Beshear in 2007. Bevin is only the second Republican governor of Kentucky in the last 50 years. Andy Beshear is the first governor of Kentucky to be a direct relative of a former governor.
Beshear had the support of 2020 Senate candidate Amy McGrath, his father and former governor Steve Beshear, former governor Paul Patton, and representative and primary challenger Rocky Adkins, all well-known Democrats in the state. Bevin had the support of President Donald Trump, who remains relatively popular in the state, particularly in rural areas. Trump and US Senator Rand Paul held a rally in support of Bevin and Republican Attorney General nominee Daniel Cameron the day before the election. Many considered the decisive factor in this election whether voters would vote based on local issues, as Bevin and his policies were deeply unpopular, or as a referendum on Trump, with whom Bevin closely aligned. The former would be more favorable for Democrats, the latter for Republicans.
Beshear won thanks to overwhelming support in Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky's two main population hubs, and their suburbs, as well as major vote swings in the Republican leaning Cincinnati suburbs and lackluster performance by Bevin in Republican strongholds, particularly the coal country of Eastern Kentucky, where Beshear won multiple counties that overwhelmingly voted Republican in 2016. Voter turnout was high across the state compared to past Kentucky elections, with a statewide turnout of about 42%. Fayette County saw a 20% increase in voter turnout, and Beshear received over twice as many votes in the county than the 2015 Democratic nominee for governor, Jack Conway. Unusually high turnout was seen as a major factor in Beshear's win.
Beshear's win coincided with Democratic momentum nationwide in elections in 2017, 2018, and 2019, following the election of Donald Trump in 2016. However, Republicans won all other statewide offices in Kentucky, including the attorney general and secretary of state offices which Democrats held going into the election.

Recanvassing

Beshear declared victory after the initial vote count, selecting J. Michael Brown to lead his transition team. Bevin refused to concede and requested a recanvassing of the vote, which took place on November 14. A recanvassing is a reprint of the voting receipts from each voting machine, and is done to make sure county officials recorded vote totals correctly. It is not a recount, which the Kentucky State Constitution does not permit for gubernatorial races. The recanvass resulted in only one change, an additional vote for Independent candidate Blackii Effing Whyte, and Bevin conceded that day.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Polling

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Convention

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky is currently recognized as a "political organization" under state law, a status that grants the party ballot access, but denies it a state-operated primary. Libertarian candidates were nominated at the party's nominating convention, held in March 2019.
Nominated
Declared
Losing by a margin of less than 0.4 percentage points, Bevin did not immediately concede and requested a recanvass, or review of counted votes, which was held on November 14. According to the Kentucky state constitution, the swearing in of a Kentucky governor must be held on the fifth Tuesday following the election. While a recount law does exist in Kentucky, it does not permit recounts for gubernatorial elections. Should a candidate contest the election results, the state legislature would determine the winner after hearing a report from a randomly selected 11-member committee from the House and Senate. This process, which is enforced through the Goebel Election Law, has only been used once, during the 1899 Kentucky gubernatorial election. Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers and some other Republican members of the Kentucky state legislature expressed skepticism of Bevin's voter fraud claims and on November 7 urged Bevin to concede if the recanvass did not go in his favor. On November 11, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, announced that "all indications are" Beshear would be the next governor. The recanvass did not result in any changes in the vote totals for either Beshear or Bevin, but found an additional vote for write-in candidate Blackii Effing Whyte.
With the recanvass producing no change in his vote total, Bevin conceded the race on November 14. Beshear was sworn in as governor on December 10, 2019.

Predictions

Debates

Endorsements

Polling

;with Rocky Adkins
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin 		Rocky
Adkins 		Undecided
December 12–15, 2018625 ± 4.0%41%42%17%

;with Alison Lundergan Grimes
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin
Grimes 		Undecided
December 12–15, 2018625 ± 4.0%47%46%7%

;with generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Bevin 		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
May 6–7, 2019676± 3.8%39%49%11%

Results

Results by congressional district

Despite winning only the two of the state’s six congressional districts, Beshear still won the popular vote. Beshear won the 3rd and 6th districts, which encompass Kentucky’s two urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, and their suburbs. Bevin won the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th districts, which represent the more rural areas of the state.
DistrictPVIAndy
Beshear		Matt
Bevin		John
Hicks		Incumbent
Representative
R+2341.7%56.2%2.1%James Comer
R+1939.1%59.0%1.9%Brett Guthrie
D+667.1%31.4%1.5%John Yarmuth
R+1845.3%52.5%2.2%Thomas Massie
R+3140.2%57.5%2.3%Hal Rogers
R+955.6%42.5%1.9%Andy Barr

Results by county