2012 United States Senate election in Montana


The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.6% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidate

Candidates

Results

The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.

General election

Candidates

Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain. The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.
Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.
As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.
On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate. Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010, but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012.
As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester with full sets of fingers. Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust. In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation. The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.

Top contributors

Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
League of Conservation Voters$82,332Alliance Resource Partners$36,500
Visa Inc.$47,400Exxon Mobil$29,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co$47,000Las Vegas Sands$25,000
Thornton & Naumes$46,600Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
WPP Group$38,350Murray Energy$24,068
Blackstone Group$34,000Devon Energy$20,400
Girardi & Keese$30,000Arch Coal$19,000
Pederson Group$29,500Yellowstone Bank$17,500
Comcast Corp$28,500Marathon Oil$13,750
First Interstate BancSystem$28,400Koch Industries$13,500

Top industries

Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
Lawyers/Law firms$1,084,445Oil & Gas$327,969
Retired$534,716Financial Institutions$277,474
Lobbyists$506,931Retired$268,693
Financial Institutions$438,763Leadership PACs$267,000
Leadership PACs$345,750Mining$169,318
Commercial Banks$299,818Lobbyists$150,050
Real Estate$280,945Real Estate$121,080
Insurance$211,009Misc Finance$94,655
Misc Finance$188,750Lawyers/Law Firms$89,338
Health Professionals$181,483Republican/Conservative$76,855

Predictions

Polling


Hypothetical polling
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Results

By county

CountyTesterVotesRehbergVotesCoxVotesTotal
Beaverhead31.84%1,53259.77%2,8768.4%4044,812
Big Horn67.39%3,14128.08%1,3094.53%2114,661
Blaine63.88%1,83431.24%8974.88%1402,871
Broadwater33.01%99557.47%1,7329.52%2873,014
Carbon45.9%2,69147.55%2,7886.55%3845,863
Carter15.74%12577.58%6166.68%53794
Cascade52.47%18,24641.96%14,5895.57%1,93634,771
Chouteau48.19%1,37446.33%1,3215.47%1562,851
Custer43.21%2,28349.31%2,6618.38%4525,396
Daniels32.6%32760.52%6076.88%691,003
Dawson35.46%1,57156.52%2,5048.01%3554,430
Deer Lodge69.55%3,12223.37%1,0497.08%3184,489
Fallon29.78%42259.28%84010.94%1551,407
Fergus33.94%2,06358.12%3,5337.95%4836,709
Flathead37.17%16,22355.38%24,1717.45%3,25243,646
Gallatin51.63%24,78142.47%20,3865.9%2,83448,001
Garfield14.31%10179.04%5586.66%47708
Glacier69.6%3,11824.84%1,1135.56%2494,480
Golden Valley36.25%17457.5%2756.25%30480
Granite38.53%65752.49%8958.97%1531,705
Hill58.93%4,06034.27%2,3616.81%4696,890
Jefferson40.92%2,68551.65%3,3897.42%4876,561
Judith Basin35.94%44157.13%7016.93%851,227
Lake49.25%6,56142.92%5,7177.83%1,04313,321
Lewis and Clark54.34%18,18940.17%13,4465.49%1,83933,474
Liberty40.48%1,34153.12%1,7606.09%611,002
Lincoln34.62%3,09156.90%5,0808.48%7578,928
Madison33.2%1,51658.91%2,6907.88%3604,566
McCone32.9%33261.05%6166.05%611,009
Meagher34.93%34255.57%5449.5%93979
Mineral42.66%86647.44%9639.9%2012,030
Missoula63.49%36,48831.64%18,1844.87%2,79957,471
Musselshell28.58%68461.14%1,46310.28%2462,393
Park48.22%4,26043.94%3,8827.84%6938,835
Petroleum24.41%7367.56%2028.03%24299
Phillips27.2%60749.69%1,3557.17%1602,717
Powder River23.32%23970.15%7196.54%671,025
Powell41.75%1,16751.2%1,4317.05%1972,795
Prairie33.33%23659.32%4207.34%52708
Ravalli38.65%8,60253.87%11,9907.48%1,66622,258
Richland30.18%1,40662.95%2,9336.87%3204,659
Roosevelt61.41%2,26933.42%1,2355.17%1913,695
Rosebud48.0%1,70444.45%1,5787.55%2683,550
Sanders34.31%2,04454.04%3,21911.65%6945,957
Sheridan42.23%81251.74%9956.03%1161,923
Silver Bow69.29%11,67324.62%4,1486.09%1,02616,847
Stillwater36.66%1,73256.84%2,6846.52%3084,724
Sweet Grass31.19%66162.67%1,3286.13%1302,119
Teton40.48%1,34153.12%1,7606.4%2123,313
Toole34.01%72157.03%1,2098.96%1902,120
Treasure33.98%15754.55%25211.47%53462
Valley44.98%1,74946.91%1,8248.1%3153,888
Wheatland36.79%36556.35%5596.85%68992
Wibaux27.39%14962.32%33910.29%56544
Yellowstone47.15%32,56546.44%32,0776.42%4,43269,074

Source:
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