2011 Manitoba general election


The 2011 Manitoba general election was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. It took place on October 4, 2011, due to the new fixed-date election laws. In the outgoing legislature, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba held 37 of the 57 seats, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba held 19 of the 57 seats and the Liberal Party of Manitoba held one of the 57 seats, after Kevin Lamoureux resigned his seat in the riding of Inkster to run as a Liberal candidate in a federal by-election.
Following the last census, electoral district boundaries were adjusted. There are 57 electoral districts.
Despite being perceived as a tight race in the run-up to voting, with The Globe and Mail expecting it to be the "closest in more than a decade", the NDP won its fourth consecutive term in government, taking 37 seats, an improvement of one from the 2007 election – thus gaining their largest majority ever in the Assembly – whilst the Progressive Conservatives failed to make any gains beyond closing the gap in the popular vote, and not a single incumbent was defeated. The PC leader Hugh McFadyen announced shortly thereafter that he would resign his post. Also facing a disappointing result in the election, Liberal leader Jon Gerrard also announced shortly after the election that he would resign his post once the party crowned a new leader in 2013.

Party leadership

The Green Party and the NDP have chosen new leaders since the last general election.
On August 27, 2009 Premier Gary Doer, after being Premier of Manitoba for ten years announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the NDP. The following day he was appointed Canada's Ambassador to the United States.
Three candidates entered the campaign to replace Doer: Steve Ashton, Greg Selinger and Andrew Swan. On September 28, 2009, Swan bowed out of the race and endorsed Selinger. Some pundits believe this was an attempt to stop Steve Ashton from becoming leader.
Ashton, first seen as a minor candidate, ended up being a heavy-weight and, gaining momentum, scored big victories in some ridings, however it wasn't enough to convince many MLAs or win union endorsement. Selinger won the leadership election on October 17, 2009 with 65.75% of the ballot. His victory was achieved in large part by being backed by unions and the vast majority of the party elite.
The Green Party elected James Beddome to a two-year term party leader on November 15, 2008, defeating incumbent Andrew Basham and third candidate Shane Nestruck. After his victory, he said that he would work toward running a full slate of candidates in the next provincial election. He was the party's candidate for a by-election in the northeast Winnipeg division of Elmwood in early 2009.

Election summary

Summary of the October 4, 2011 Manitoba Legislature election
! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Party
! rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Party leader
!rowspan="2"|Candidates
! colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|Seats
! colspan="3" style="text-align:center;"|Popular vote

Turnout

Of 777,054 registered voters, 55.77% or 433,346 cast votes in the election. Although this is slightly lower than the 2007 election, voter turnout in Manitoba has generally declined since the mid-1970s when it reached 78.3% in the 1973 general election. About 78,500 voters took advantage of advance polls, more than any previous election.

Marginal seats

The following is a list of the ten ridings most narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2007 election.
New boundaries are in effect for the 2011 election, so some ridings not listed may come into place in the next election with population movements.
New DemocraticProgressive Conservative

  1. River East, 0.56%
  2. Brandon West, 0.56%
  3. Portage la Prairie, 5.91%
  • Kirkfield Park, 11.22%
  • Southdale, 11.30%
  • Dauphin-Roblin, 12.12%
  • La Verendrye, 12.47%
    • LiberalGreen
  • Fort Rouge, 16.44%
  • Wolseley, 51.82%

    • Incumbents not contesting their seats

    Retiring incumbents

    Resigned

    ;Liberals

    Issues

    Bipole III

    planned an alternative hydro-electric transmission line to Bipole I and II routes running through the Interlake region in Manitoba. Initially it planned a more easterly route to the east of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP ignored the expert opinion of Manitoba Hydro and decided to build the line on the west side of the province at a cost of $4.1 billion. Further, the NDP proposed the creation of a large UNESCO environmental heritage site named Pimachiowin Aki. Just days before his retirement as premier, Doer announced that the government would donate $10 million to the trust fund for UNESCO World Heritage site on the east side of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP claimed that an east side Bipole III route would jeopardise the UNESCO site and claimed that a heritage site would benefit First Nations communities more. The NDP proposed a longer, more expensive, alternative route through the west of Manitoba to preserve the environmental integrity of the east side. Subject to the Environmental Impact Statement to be completed in June 2011, the construction of the line will begin in the winter of 2012, one year after the election.
    Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen opposes the western route stating that it would cost $1 billion to $1.75 billion more, it would destroy more trees, 15 out of 16 First Nations believed the Bipole III would be more economically beneficial, and would be more at risk from disasters as the Bipole lines in the Interlake. McFadyen promised that if elected he would cancel the western route, and build it down the east side. McFadyen also supported the UNESCO site on the east side and claims that Bipole III would not jeopardise the World Heritage Site.
    Liberal leader Jon Gerrard proposed that instead of building the line down the east or west, Manitoba Hydro should put the cable under Lake Winnipeg as proposed by Dr. John Ryan, retired University of Winnipeg professor in 2008. In the fall of 2010 Gerrard asked Manitoba Hydro CEO Bob Brennan if he had inquired into the Lake Winnipeg route. Brennan said that he had not. Gerrard promised to build the line through Lake Winnipeg if elected.

    Opinion polls

    Leadership approval rating

    Polling FirmDate of PollingLinkGreg SelingerHugh McFadyenJon Gerrard
    Probe Research IncJuly 3, 2010494135
    Disapproval rating222629

    Candidates by riding

    Westman/Parkland

    Central Manitoba

    Eastman

    Northwest Winnipeg

    Northeast Winnipeg

    West Winnipeg

    Central Winnipeg

    South Winnipeg

    By-elections since 2011

    ! style="text-align:right;" colspan="3"|Total valid votes
    !align="right"|2,743
    !align="right"|100.00
    !align="right"|
    ! style="text-align:right;" colspan="3"|Rejected and declined votes
    !align="right"|14
    !align="right"|
    !align="right"|
    ! style="text-align:right;" colspan="3"|Turnout
    !align="right"|2,757
    !align="right"|22.10
    !align="right"|
    ! style="text-align:right;" colspan="3"|Electors on the lists
    !align="right"|12,475
    !align="right"|
    !align="right"|